Singapore’s Housing & Development Board (HDB) flats have long been a stable part of the property market, but the question on many minds is whether the oldest units are finally starting to lose value. After all, these flats aren’t getting any younger, the SERS program has mostly concluded, and the VERS initiative looms on the horizon.

Back in 2018, the government made waves by pointing out that even flats over 50 years old could still appreciate. Fast forward to 2026, and it’s worth revisiting the data to see how these ageing flats have fared over the past decade.

Tracking the Oldest Flats

For simplicity, this analysis focuses on flats that have crossed the 50-year mark — generally those built in the late 1960s and 1970s. Flats in towns without any units this old were excluded.

We tracked resale prices of 3-room, 4-room, and 5-room flats from 2014 to mid-2026. Flats built from 1976 onwards were treated as the “younger” group for comparison.

Here’s a snapshot of the overall trend:

From 2014 to 2026, flats over 50 years old rose by about 16.8%, compared to a 47% gain for younger flats. Clearly, older flats are still increasing in value, but at a much slower pace than their younger counterparts.

Breaking It Down by Flat Size

• 3-room flats: Older units appreciated roughly 14%, while younger 3-roomers jumped 43%. Marine Parade was an exception, where older 3-room flats held up better due to limited new supply.

• 4-room flats: Older flats saw only a 14% rise compared to 51% for younger units. Many towns, including Bishan and Kallang/Whampoa, showed dramatic growth gaps.

• 5-room flats: Even in prime towns where older flats were already pricey ($900,000–$1 million), gains averaged just 13.6%, while newer 5-room flats rose by more than 45% islandwide.

Why Prices Haven’t Collapsed

Theory, such as Bala’s Curve, suggests leasehold properties should see sharper depreciation once they hit around 60 years. Yet the data shows no sudden collapse. Several factors help explain this:

1. Strong market demand: Buyers are influenced more by location, flat size, and amenities than theoretical models. A 50-year-old Queenstown flat at $900,000 can still seem a bargain compared to a smaller $1.8 million condo elsewhere.

2. Pandemic effects: Covid-era demand (2020–2023) temporarily boosted prices across the board, including for older flats.

3. Ageing population: Many older Singaporeans downsizing from condos or landed homes don’t require long leases and are willing to pay for well-located, spacious flats, keeping demand strong.

4. Rising land values: New developments, transport links, and amenities can increase the land value, offsetting natural property depreciation.

High Base Prices Still Matter

Even if percentage growth is modest, the absolute price of older flats remains significant. For example, Bedok’s 5-room flats rose from $680,000 in 2014 to about $714,000 in 2026. In Kallang/Whampoa, older 5-room flats increased from $603,000 to $764,000. Prime estates like Queenstown saw 5-roomers climb from $790,000 to around $938,000 — a 22% gain despite their already high starting point.

The Bottom Line

Older HDB flats are far from collapsing. They are still appreciating, sometimes fetching $700,000–$1 million, but their growth is slower than younger flats. From 2014 to mid-2026, flats over 50 years rose by roughly 17%, compared to nearly 47% for younger units.

The takeaway? Lease decay acts as a brake rather than a cliff-drop. Over time, the gap between older and younger flats will widen, but location, size, and Singapore’s demographic trends continue to shield older flats from major losses.

While the day may come when these flats depreciate more sharply, the process appears gradual, plateauing at different rates across towns and flat types.

Singapore’s HDB market remains resilient — even the oldest flats have their place in the city’s property landscape.